Previewing the Three Conference Championship Games Tonight

We already have four teams who don’t have to sweat on Selection Sunday as three bids were handed out yesterday. It was pretty chalky as Wichita State, Florida Gulf Coast and Winthrop all were favorites to win their conference title game and did so pretty easily. The games don’t tip until 7 tonight, which gives you time to get home and get comfortable before tuning in to see some teams get their hearts ripped out. There won’t be as much chalk tonight as the MAAC gives us a 3/4 matchup. Today’s on the short end in terms of amount of games, especially not having an afternoon slot, but be prepared as we get back to games being at noon starting tomorrow.

CAA Conference Tournament Championship (Charleston, SC) 

No. 2 College of Charleston vs No. 1 UNC-Wilmington – 7pm

If you’re an NC State fan, you’re going to want to watch this game as I still think Kevin Keatts is the most likely candidate to end up in Raleigh. Both games between the two top seeds this year have been entertaining, with each winning on the road – CofC by 1 and UNC-Wilmington by 6. It’s a complete contrast of styles between the two, as whoever controls the tempo will likely be the winner here. Charleston wants to play a slow-down game, with minimal possessions where UNC-Wilmington does a good job of dictating tempo. That’s one thing I tend to look at when it comes to team metrics. Can you control the tempo in terms of average possession length on both sides of the ball pending how you want to play. UNC-Wilmington does that. They score fast. They want to push the tempo. What I’m impressed by when looking at their stats and watching them play is the difference between average offensive possession length and defensive possession length. It’s about a 2 second defense, meaning they can beat you in either situation. Something to watch in this game is how the officials call it. If they call the game tight, College of Charleston has a massive advantage. They are 10th in the country in FTA/FGA while UNC-Wilmington’s defense fouls a ton (270th in the country). Those are free points for a team that shoots 74.3% collectively.

Pick: I think Charleston wins outright, so I’ll take them with the 4 points. The fact this game will be a home game for CofC and I think the officials call it tight, gives them the ability to take advantage of those fouls. Keep an eye out for Joe Chealey, who is coming off back-to-back 20+ point games in the CAA Tournament and shoots over 40% from three.

MAAC Tournament Championships (Albany, NY) 

No. 4 Siena vs No. 3 Iona – 9pm

This is the one that will have most Stoolies watching as the two New York teams tip off at 9 tonight. Siena is one of the more intriguing midmajors out there as they had pretty high expectations with the group of seniors they returned this year. They’ve obviously been a little underwhelming but here they are with a shot to make the NCAA Tournament over the best program in the MAAC over the last decade or so. Siena has to take advantage on the offensive glass, especially if you’re Brett Bisping, who has been the best rebounder in the MAAC. That’s the biggest advantage Siena has heading into the game, besides the fact it’s a home game for them. The Saints are 30th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage while Iona ranks 243rd in defensive rebounding percentage. Marquis Wright is someone to keep an eye on for Siena. The senior guard is coming off a 20-point game in the upset of Monmouth but also had 7 turnovers. He can get a little careless at times, but Pastos likes to put the ball in his hands, especially late in the game or late in the shot clock. Iona isn’t playing nearly as fast as they did a couple years ago, but they still want to get up and down the court. They want to get a bunch of 3’s early in the shot clock as they shoot a 3 on 40% of their field goal attempts this year. Jordan Washington is Iona’s best player as he ranks 3rd in the country with 37.1 possession percentage. He’s also the leading scorer at 17 points per game. But, there is a name that basketball fans might know in Sam Cassell Jr., on the roster, who is a transfer from UConn.

Pick: Rolling with the home court advantage, my love for Jimmy Pastos and the fear that Clem will be quite huffy if I choose Iona. My biggest fear though is Cassell hitting a big shot, giving Clem (and Knicks fans) flashbacks to the 1994 NBA Finals thus giving the world an angry Clem, which can only be fixed by the best of snacks. I just think the group of seniors that Pastos can put together one last game at home and win (plus cover the +1).

Southern Conference Tournament Championship (Asheville, NC) 

No. 3 East Tennessee State vs No. 1 UNC-Greensboro

This is one of the conferences where we saw a weird situation in the sense that there was a 3-way tie for first and the best team finished third due to tie breakers. That’s East Tennessee State, who is the favorite despite the seed number (just a reminder not to say it was an upset based on seed numbers, just go by what Vegas says). ETSU is another team that likes to play fairly fast, averaging less than 17 seconds per possession on the offensive side of the ball. But, they rely heavily on T.J. Cromer. The 6’3″ senior averages 19.0 per game and does it fairly efficiently with his 40% 3-point shooting. I mean just look at what he did to Samford yesterday, going for 41 points on 18 shots. This game has the chance to be really sloppy as each team turns the ball over a ton – ranking 310th and 298th in the country respectively. The difference is ETSU tends to take advantage of this better than UNCG. The Bucs are 16th in the country at forcing turnovers.

Pick: I like ETSU to cover the 5 here. That turnover percentage is just absolutely killer and if ETSU gets up in the game, UNC-Greensboro will have to force more than normal, leading to even more turnovers. Cromer obviously caught fire yesterday going 9-for-12 from the 3-point line, so you have to imagine he’s going to come out shooting a high volume early in the game. If UNC-Greensboro can limit him early, they have a chance. If he comes out and hits it’ll be over quick.